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Black Swans, Conspiracy Theories, and the Quixotic Search for Fraud: A Look at Hausmann and Rigobon's Analysis of Venezuela's Referendum Vote

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Publication Date: September 2004

Publisher(s): Center for Economic and Policy Research

Author(s): Mark Weisbrot; David Rosnick; Todd Tucker

Topic: Politics (Elections and voting)

Keywords: Electronic voting; International monitoring; Hugo Chavez

Type: Report

Coverage: Venezuela

Abstract:

In this paper, CEPR responds to Hausmann and Rigobon’s study claiming electronic fraud in Venezuela's August 15, 2004 recall referendum. It shows that they provide no evidence of fraud — a conclusion subsequently confirmed by an independent panel of statisticians selected by the Carter Center.