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Weapon Mix and Exploratory Analysis: A Case Study

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Abstract:

A new approach to model-based analysis--exploratory analysis--expands on traditional analytic approaches to enhance understanding of complex problems, provides a wider range of information for decisionmakers, and improves comparisons among alternative modeling venues. This documented briefing discusses and illustrates the advantages of exploratory analysis over more traditional model-based analysis in the context of the weapon mix problem. While traditional analysis provides useful information, it is limited and may not reflect the possible range of acceptable answers. Improving the model or data alone can be inefficient and not solve the problem. Exploratory analysis, on the other hand, provides decisionmaking flexibility, robustness across contingencies, risk neutralization, and greater understanding of the model.