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Missing the Moving Target: Meager job growth and the poor track record of the administration’s job forecasts

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Publication Date: February 2004

Publisher(s): Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (Washington, D.C.)

Author(s): Isaac Shapiro; Lee Price; Jared Bernstein

Funder(s): Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (Washington, D.C.)

Funder(s): Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (Washington, D.C.)

Special Collection: John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation

Topic: Labor (Employment and labor supply)

Keywords: Economic projections; Job displacement; Unemployment rate; Economic inequality

Type: Report

Abstract:

The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) writes the Economic Report of the President, the administration’s
major annual assessment of economic trends. In each of the last three years, the report has included the
administration’s employment forecast for coming years. The following conclusions stand out from an assessment
of these forecasts.