Missing the Moving Target: Meager job growth and the poor track record of the administration’s job forecasts
Publication Date: February 2004
Special Collection: John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation
Keywords: Economic projections; Job displacement; Unemployment rate; Economic inequality
The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) writes the Economic Report of the President, the administration’s
major annual assessment of economic trends. In each of the last three years, the report has included the
administration’s employment forecast for coming years. The following conclusions stand out from an assessment
of these forecasts.