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State Budget Deficits Projected for Fiscal Year 2005

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Abstract:

Recent press reports may give the impression that the state fiscal crisis is nearing an end. A recent National Conference of State Legislatures report is headlined “Fiscal Storm Shows Signs of Subsiding,” and notes that revenues in the current fiscal year are meeting or exceeding original forecasts in 34 states. The Rockefeller Institute reports that state revenues — adjusted for inflation and legislative changes — grew slightly in the July-September 2003 quarter, following eight quarters of revenue decline. The stronger revenue growth suggests that there will be less need for mid-year budget cuts to keep state budgets in balance in the current fiscal year (state fiscal year 2004, which ends on June 30, 2004 in most states) than there have been in the past two years.