China's New Leadership Line-Up: Implications for U.S. Policy

Publication Date: October 2003

Publisher: Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Author(s):

Research Area: Government

Type:

Coverage: China

Abstract:

Key leadership and policy decisions the China Communist Party made at its 16th Party Congress of November 8 — 14, 2002, and at the annual National People’s Congress (NPC) meeting in March 2003 will affect the People’s Republic of China (PRC) for the foreseeable future, but are unlikely to have an impact on U.S.-China relations any time soon. At the Party meeting in 2002, Secretary Jiang Zemin, who held the leading Party position for 13 years, stepped down and was replaced by then Vice-President Hu Jintao, long considered to be successor-in-waiting for the top Party spot. In addition to Party Secretary, the Party named a new Politburo, the PRC’s top policy and decision-making body. Missing from the new 24-member Politburowere the PRC’s long-standing top three leaders: former Party Secretary and President Jiang Zemin, Premier Zhu Rongji, and Vice-Premier Li Peng. Completing official leadership changes within the state government, in March 2003, the National People’s Congress selected a new PRC President (Hu Jintao), a new Vice-President (Zeng Qinghong), and a new Premier (Wen Jiabao). The new line-up suggests a wholesale transfer of power to a new generation of leaders.

But beneath the surface, the story appears more complex. Although Jiang officially has stepped down from most of his official positions, at least five of the nine new Politburo Standing Committee members are considered to be his proteges. This suggests Jiang will continue to wield substantial influence over future decisions, even though not a Politburo member himself. More uncertainty involves the Secretariat, another important Party vehicle immediately under the Politburo. The Secretariat’s role has been inconsistent in PRC history. Originally the supreme
decision-making body (in the 1940s), it evolved into an administrative body under the PRC’s 1982 Constitution, overseeing the implementation of Politburo decisions. But the new leading member of the Secretariat after the 16th Party Congress is Zeng Qinghong, for many years Jiang Zemin’s closest advisor and widely considered to be an exceptional political operative. Some have suggested that giving such a position to Zeng, who went from Politburo alternate to full member of the Standing Committee at the 16th Party Congress, signals that the Secretariat may begin to have a more powerful, more assertive role in Chinese policymaking.

In substantive policy decisions, the results of the 16th Party Congress and the 2003 NPC meeting brought no surprises. As was anticipated, the overwhelming emphasis was on continued economic development in China. In what was described as a significant theoretical contribution to socialism, the Party amended its Constitution with a new political theory associated with Jiang Zemin—dubbed the “Three Represents” theory— intended to expand the Party’s constituency beyond peasants and workers to include advanced productive forces (private sector entrepreneurs); advanced culture; and the interests of the “overwhelming majority” of the Chinese people. The Party also amended its constitution to allow private entrepreneurs and business representatives—hitherto banned from membership— to join the Chinese Communist Party.

This CRS report will be updated as events warrant.