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Race-Based Neighborhood Projection: A Proposed Framework for Understanding New Data

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Publication Date: July 2000

Publisher(s): Furman Center for Real Estate

Author(s): Ingrid Gould Ellen

Special Collection: John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation

Topic: Social conditions (Urban conditions)

Keywords: Crime; Neighborhoods; Property values; Race

Type: Article

Abstract:

This paper outlines the race-based, neighbourhood projection hypothesis which holds that, in choosing neighbourhoods, households care less about present racial composition than they do about expectations about future neighbourhood conditions, such as school quality, property values and crime. Race remains relevant, however, since households tend to associate a growing minority presence with structural decline. Using a unique data-set that links households to their neighbourhoods, this paper estimates both exit and entry models and then constructs a simple simulation model that predicts the course of racial change in different communities. Doing so, the paper concludes that the empirical evidence is more consistent with the race-based projection hypothesis than with other common explanations for neighbourhood racial transition.