Nuclear Weapons and Ballistic Missile Proliferation in India and Pakistan: Issues for Congress

Publication Date: July 2000

Publisher: Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Author(s):

Research Area: Military and defense

Type:

Coverage: India Pakistan

Abstract:

The Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests of May 1998 ended South Asia's condition of "existential" deterrence. Both countries now have overt nuclear postures, and U.S. concerns in the region have focused on preservation of global nonproliferation regimes and related efforts, prevention of an arms race in South Asia, and movement toward reconciliation between India and Pakistan, especially on their mutual differences over the area of Kashmir.

The "benchmarks" which provide a framework for U.S. policy in this area encompass key aspects of nonproliferation efforts. Progress toward stated goals has been limited. Neither India nor Pakistan is signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation or Comprehensive Test Ban treaties, and there are indications that both are continuing to produce fissile materials and perhaps even deploy nuclear weapons.

The 1999 Kargil conflict had the effect of suspending the so-called Lahore process of reconciliation begun in February of that year. The October 1999 military coup in Pakistan and the November 1999 political victory of the Hindu nationalist party in India brought renewed fears of further conflict in the region, but the governments of both countries have thus far maintained fairly moderate external policies.

There remain no confirmed reports of the actual deployment of nuclear weapons by India or Pakistan, but both governments have indicated that their militaries are prepared to make use of such weapons. In August 1999, a quasi-governmental Indian body released a Draft Nuclear Doctrine for India. This document calls for a "minimum credible deterrent" (MCD) based upon a triad of delivery systems and pledges that India will not be the first to use nuclear weapons in a conflict. It has been neither accepted nor rejected by New Delhi. Islamabad has made no comparable public declaration, but it also seeks to maintain an MCD while rejecting a no-first-use pledge.

Some observers consider the current situation of territorial contiguity and weak command and control structures in South Asia to be inherently unstable. Others believe that, in the absence of increased regional tensions, strategic stability will continue to be present. Given China's strategic complacency in relation to India, and Pakistan's largely reactive posture, New Delhi's nuclear deployment decisions are perhaps key to regional stability. At present, strategic, economic, and technological factors indicate that the growth of South Asian nuclear and missile forces likely will continue to be limited in the foreseeable future.

In pursuit of its stated policy goals, the U.S. government may employ four broad approaches to proliferation in South Asia, each with its own potential strengths and weaknesses. These are: increased pressure to compel greater cooperation, continuation of the approach currently in place, increased incentives to encourage greater cooperation, and/or the provision of technological assistance to allow for better managed and, therefore, potentially safer nuclear arsenals.