Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons and Missiles: Status and Trends

Publication Date: January 2005

Publisher: Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Author(s):

Research Area: Military and defense

Type:

Abstract:

The United States has long recognized the dangers inherent in the spread of nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) weapons, and missiles. Despite the preeminence of U.S. military power, or perhaps because of it, these weapons continue to pose very serious threats to the United States and its foreign interests. NBC weapons could be delivered by means ranging from ships or trucks that terrorist groups might employ, to aircraft, cruise or ballistic missiles of states. This report, which analyzes NBC weapons programs around the globe and potential threat patterns, is updated as needed.

The total number of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons in the world is shrinking as the major powers scale back their inventories through unilateral reductions and arms control, but other countries and groups still try to acquire these weapons. There are five established nuclear weapon states (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and India and Pakistan declared their nuclear weapons capability with nuclear tests in 1998. Israel and North Korea are widely believed to have nuclear weapon arsenals, although neither has directly declared its capabilities. North Korea may have between 2 and 8 nuclear weapons. Recent international inspections in Iran have revealed significant strides in Iran's nuclear fuel cycle capabilities and many believe Iran to have a covert nuclear weapons program. Iraq and Libya are no longer states of proliferation concern; despite Libya's ability to procure significant nuclear components, its scientists lacked the wherewithal to proceed aggressively toward a nuclear weapon.

About a dozen countries have offensive biological weapons (BW) programs, and the same number have chemical weapons (CW) programs. That number could grow, as new technologies are developed and the international flow of information, goods, people, and technology continues. While the United States and Russia eliminated intermediate-range missiles and are reducing their intercontinental missile inventories, China is modernizing and expanding its missile force. North Korea, Iran, Israel, India, and Pakistan are building short- and medium-range missiles and are developing longer-range missiles. Dozens of countries have or are developing short-range ballistic missiles and more are likely to buy them. Over 80 countries have cruise missiles; about 40 manufacture or have the ability to manufacture them. And terrorists continue their efforts to acquire NBC capabilities.

Although Cold War NBC threats are greatly diminished, elements in North Korea, Russia, China, India, Pakistan, and other countries continue to export weapons technology. The potential for secondary proliferation markets has grown, and concern about the ability of individual actors like the Pakistani nuclear scientist, A.Q. Khan, to peddle nuclear technology has grown considerably. The number of countries or groups that will acquire or produce NBC weapons may decrease if diplomacy, arms control treaties, nonproliferation regimes, and security and assistance strategies are effective, but NBC weapons and missiles will remain a potential threat for the foreseeable future.