Turkey: Issues for U.S. Policy

Publication Date: May 2002

Publisher: Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Author(s):

Research Area: Government

Type:

Coverage: Turkey

Abstract:

Turkey has long been considered a strategic U.S. and NATO ally. That it combines a predominantly Muslim identity with a secular democratic government has added to Turkey's significance to the United States since September 11, 2001.

Turkish domestic and foreign policy issues concern U.S. policymakers, who would like a stable, competent, friendly government in Ankara. Since 1999, a coalition of three parties of mismatched ideological preferences has presided over unprecedented financial crises and the deepest recession in half a century. On the other hand, the coalition has produced an impressive legislative record of economic and political reforms. Some economic indicators, such as inflation and interest rates, are showing improvement, but Turkey has yet to experience economic recovery. As an election nears, cleavages in the government may become more severe as coalition partners jockey for position. Other contenders are in opposition inside and outside parliament. Islamists may emerge from an election with strong support. Two parties have Islamist roots, but one of these is striving to be known as centrist rather than Islamist, and it leads opinion polls.

A number of foreign policy issues join U.S. and Turkish interests. In the war on terrorism, Turkey is playing a major role in Afghanistan, where it will assume command of the international peacekeeping force. Yet, Turkey is reluctant to see the war expand to Iraq. Turkey is a candidate for European Union membership, but has not met the criteria for membership. U.S. policymakers had maintained that membership would anchor Turkey in the West. Currently, the Administration wants the EU, particularly Greece, and Turkey to resolve differences over a planned EU rapid reaction force and its relationship to NATO. For its part, the EU wants Turkey to help resolve the Cyprus issue. Talks are underway, but no progress has been reported. Unless there is a resolution, Cyprus, as represented by the Greek-Cypriot led government, is likely to be approved for EU membership and a crisis between the EU and Turkey is possible, affecting Turkey's EU prospects. Lack of a resolution on Cyprus also will complicate Greek-Turkish relations, which have seen a rapprochement since 1999. Cyprus and issues of Aegean sovereignty impede the full normalization of relations between the two neighboring NATO allies. Turkey's relations with countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia are important because of their energy resources and U.S. interests in pipelines to transport them independently of Iran and Russia.

The United States has encouraged the development of Turkey's ties to Israel since 1996. Turkey and Israel have concluded major arms and water deals, and their relationship has withstood differences over Palestine. The United States has been Turkey's main arms source and, after a three-year hiatus, the United States resumed providing assistance to Turkey after September 11. The amount of aid is expected to increase sharply in view of U.S. support for Turkey's command of peacekeeping forces in Afghanistan. For its part, Turkey would like U.S.-Turkish trade to get more attention.