The Middle East and North Africa: Political Succession and Regime Stability

Publication Date: August 2003

Publisher: Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Author(s):

Research Area: Government

Type:

Abstract:

The recent deaths of several of the region's longest serving heads of state and the ill-health of others, as well as the demise of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq, have led to increased speculation about the political future of various countries in the Middle East-North Africa (MENA) region. With its vast oil and natural gas resources, the MENA region is important to the U.S. economy, and the cooperation of MENA countries in the war against terrorism is central to U.S. security. Consequently, political stability in the MENA region has long been an important U.S. goal, and the subject of political succession raises a number of foreign policy questions. A change in the leadership in these countries, for example, could significantly affect their policies toward the United States and their willingness to cooperate with the United States in achieving the stability needed to advance U.S. interests in this important region.

On the other hand, there can be down sides to stability. Under some circumstances, changes in regimes that are antithetical to U.S. goals or values could support U.S. interests. Moreover, a narrow focus on stability may not always be compatible with another goal espoused by many U.S. policy makers, namely, fostering democracy in the Middle East.

These sometimes competing goals have given rise to a debate over the degree to which the United States should back existing regimes or take steps to encourage the emergence of new ones. A definitive answer is difficult because of the widely differing types of political systems that govern MENA countries and the uncertainties surrounding political succession. Governments in this region include traditional and constitutional monarchies, democratic and theocratic republics, and military and party dictatorships; however, with rare exceptions, power in both the monarchies and in the republics as well remains concentrated in the hands of a head of state supported by a relatively small coterie of key officials or family members.

Although most Middle East regimes have shown a high degree of stability in recent years, questions remain over succession issues in many of these countries. In the monarchies, constitutions or basic laws generally stipulate succession by primogeniture, while granting some latitude to a monarch in designating a son, a brother, or a close male relative as heir to the throne. Factions within the royal family or other groups may contest assumption of power by the designated successor, however, when a ruler dies or otherwise leaves the scene. In the largely nominal republics, constitutional provisions also stipulate arrangements for succession, usually through elections, or to a specified official (prime minister or speaker of parliament) if the incumbent head of state dies or resigns. In actuality, however, key military officials or family members may be more likely candidates for succession. A review and description of the broad spectrum of governments in this region may assist in the formulation of U.S. policies toward Middle East countries.