April Is the Cruelest Month: Personal Income Tax Revenues Portend Deepening Trouble for Many States

Publication Date: June 2009

Publisher: Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government

Author(s): Donald J. Boyd; Lucy Dadayan

Research Area: Banking and finance

Keywords: Withholding; Tax returns; Personal income

Type: Report

Coverage: United States


As we predicted in a previous report, tax returns on 2008 income that were filed in April show huge declines, likely due to stock market-driven declines in investment income and declines in bonus payments. The April-June quarter is an important quarter for personal income tax revenue collections and can be very volatile.

To gain early information on personal incomes tax revenues, Rockefeller Institute staff collected statistics from 37 of 41 states that have a broad-based personal income tax. The data cover different components of personal income tax including withholding, tax returns, declarations of estimated taxes, and refunds.