Political Forecasting? The IMF’s Flawed Growth Projections for Argentina and Venezuela

Publication Date:

Publisher: Center for Economic and Policy Research

Author(s): David Rosnick; Mark Weisbrot

Research Area: Economics

Keywords: Foreign debt; Devaluation (peso); Recession

Type: Report

Coverage: Argentina

Abstract:

This report examines the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) projections for economic growth for Argentina and Venezuela in recent years. It shows that the IMF consistently made large errors in overestimating Argentina's GDP growth for the years 2000, 2001 and 2002, during the country's 1998-2002 depression, and large underestimates for the years 2003-2006, as Argentina’s economy grew rapidly. The paper also notes the IMF’s repeated large errors in underestimating Venezuela's GDP growth for the years since 2004.