The Cost of Failure to Enact Health Reform: Implications for States

Publication Date: September 2009

Publisher: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation

Author(s): Bowen Garrett; John Holahan; Lan Doan; Irene Headen

Research Area: Health

Type: Report

Abstract:

Researchers from the Urban Institute used their Health Insurance Policy Simulation Model to estimate how coverage and cost trends would change between now and 2019 if the health system is not reformed. The report shows that under the worst-case scenario, within 10 years:

* The number of people without insurance would increase by more than 30 percent in 29 states.
In every state, the number of uninsured would increase by at least 10 percent.
* Businesses would see their premiums increase—more than doubling in 27 states.
Even in the best case scenario, employers in 46 states would see premiums increase by more than 60 percent.
* Every state would see a smaller share of its population getting health care through their job.
Half of the states would see the number of people with ESI fall by more than 10 percent.
* Every state would see spending for Medicaid/Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) rise by more than 75 percent.
* The amount of uncompensated care in the health system would more than double in 45 states.