Kinetic Energy Kill for Ballistic Missile Defense: A Status Overview

Publication Date: January 2007

Publisher: Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Author(s):

Research Area: Military and defense

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Abstract:

For some time, U.S. ballistic missile defense (BMD) programs have focused primarily on developing kinetic energy interceptors to destroy attacking ballistic missiles. These efforts have evolved over 30 years and have produced a significant amount of test data from which much can be learned. This report provides a broad overview of the U.S. investment in this approach to BMD.

The data on the U.S. flight test effort to develop a national missile defense (NMD) system remains mixed and ambiguous. There is no recognizable pattern to explain this record nor is there conclusive evidence of a learning curve over more than two decades of developmental testing. In addition, the test scenarios are considered by some not to be operational tests and could be more realistic in nature; they see these tests as more of a laboratory or developmental effort. Success and failure rates (and their technical causes) have shown relative consistency through this period.

The U.S. flight test effort to develop theater missile defense (TMD) systems appears more promising. In relative terms, developmental and operational testing of TMD systems has been more successful than the NMD effort. Nonetheless, TMD systems that evolved from mature, existing ground and sea-based air-defense systems have demonstrated greater test success than other TMD programs.

How effective has the U.S. investment been in developing kinetic energy BMD systems? Observers could make any number of arguments as to what the record means and what could be done to improve the effectiveness of systems under development and of those deployed. Some observers have suggested that the 110th Congress might review the U.S. investment in the kinetic energy concept to date to determine how best to proceed with the U.S. BMD effort in the coming years. This report will be updated as events warrant.