Germany's "Grand Coalition" Government: Prospects and Implications

Publication Date: January 2006

Publisher: Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Author(s):

Research Area: Government

Type:

Coverage: Germany

Abstract:

A "grand coalition" government of Germany's two largest parties, the Christian Democrat Union/Christian Socialist Union (CDU/CSU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by CDU candidate Angela Merkel took office on November 22, 2005, after the German federal election of September 18, 2005, had produced no clear winner. Some experts believe that the coalition will be fragile, short lived, and will accomplish little with each side trying to gain political advantage over the other. Such negative expectations are not shared by other analysts who believe that only such a large coalition can implement potentially painful but needed economic and social reforms, assuming that it can overcome partisan politics.

The most difficult and crucial areas on which the coalition must cooperate if the government is to succeed involve social and economic policy. Government success will be important, not just for Germany, but also for Europe and global economic health. Experts believe that Angela Merkel, as Chancellor, wants to speed domestic social and economic reforms. It is not clear whether she will have broader domestic support to do so, especially among the SPD base.

Many observers expect more continuity than change in German foreign policy under the "grand coalition" government. On most issues, the CDU/CSU and the SPD are not far apart. Germany is expected to continue to give priority to multilateral approaches to solving international problems. Many expect Chancellor Merkel to balance traditional strong Franco-German cooperation within the EU with closer ties to the United Kingdom, and other countries such as Italy, Spain, and Poland. She is expected to pursue European integration as a corollary rather than in opposition to the transatlantic partnership.

U.S. officials and many experts hope for improvement in U.S.-German bilateral relations under the Merkel-led government,. Merkel has given priority to reducing the strains in transatlantic relations, as well as improving negative German public opinion regarding the United States. The new German government is unlikely to fundamentally change the German stand on Iraq, meaning that it will provide some financial and training assistance outside Iraq, but no miliary personnel on the ground. It is likely to continue to take a lead in efforts to stabilize Afghanistan. Chancellor Merkel is expected to continue Germany's domestic and international efforts to combat terrorism. The United States, Germany, and the EU are working together to oppose Iran's development of nuclear weapons. Chancellor Merkel has indicated that she will not support a lifting of the EU arms embargo against China, which the United States also opposes. A number of differences are likely to continue even under the Merkel government, such as on the treatment of terror suspect prisoners, extra-judicial "renditions," environmental policy, and the International Criminal Court. Chancellor Merkel's first official visit to Washington and her talks with President Bush on January 13, 2006, were designed to demonstrate that a new positive chapter had opened in bilateral relations, although differences were discussed candidly. The two leaders agreed on most points, including the urgency of addressing Iran's nuclear ambitions. This report will be updated.