The Surge Has Failed in its Objective

Publication Date: September 2007

Publisher: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Author(s): Jessica Tuchman Mathews

Research Area: Military and defense

Type: Brief

Coverage: Iraq

Abstract:

The surge the president of the United States launched last January has failed. By tacitly conceding that there has been no political progress in Iraq since then, Mr. Bush admits as much, but asks for more time. He raises some important fears (and some wildly exaggerated ones) of the consequences of withdrawal. What he has said nothing about are the positive reasons to keep on trying. That is what the upcoming debate must address: more time to achieve what?

The purpose of the surge was an enlarged security force so that, as the president said, over time, "daily life will improve, Iraqis will gain confidence in their leaders, and the government will have the breathing space it needs to make progress." That progress was to include a raft of fundamental political changes. Al Qaeda was a relatively minor factor. ("As we make these changes, we will continue to pursue al Qaeda...-Al Qaeda is still active in Iraq.") Until midsummer, the administration insisted that the escalated military effort was not to reduce violence per se, but to reduce it because political reconciliation would follow.