Forks in the Road for the U.S. Navy

Publication Date: January 2003

Publisher: RAND Corporation

Author(s): Irv Blickstein; Frank W. Lacroix

Research Area: Military and defense

Type: Brief

Abstract:

Making the right decisions at critical turning points can be the difference between victory and defeat. The Navy asked RAND if it could identify “forks in the road”--future decision points that may require a significant change in direction for the service. After defining the attributes of such forks in the road, the authors use an interview process and an opportunity-risk analysis to identify nine forks that the Navy should consider first. These nine diverse potential forks, everything from modularity to laser weapons, were followed by descriptions of two high-risk forks-unmanned vehicles and space-based capabilities that nonetheless could yield such high payoffs that they should be considered. The authors conclude with an appendix that traces the chronology of two historical forks.